Bitcoin data calls $80K the bottom, analysts say BTC bulls are back
25.11.2025
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One analyst said that Bitcoin’s dip to $80,000 marked the bottom and that there is a 91% chance that the current trend reversal will send BTC price back to $118,000.
BTC traders just survived one of the fastest capitulation events since late 2022 — and one analyst is calling the bottom at $80K with 91% certainty. Historical data says we're primed for a massive reversal.
- • 91% probability that BTC won't see a weekly close below current lows
- • NVT Golden Cross flashing undervaluation signals — short-term long positions looking juicy
- • Arthur Hayes backing the $80K–$85K floor with macro liquidity expansion thesis
Capitulation volume confirmed a high-probability bottom for BTC
Analyst Astronomer dropped the stats: when three consecutive high-volume red candles print before major reversals (the capitulation-volume model), history shows this pattern marks cycle bottoms. Across 11 instances: 8 led to fresh ATHs, 2 rallied 35% before continuing downtrend, and only 1 was a sustained downside outlier.
That's a 91% chance of hitting $118K from here, 99% chance of $112K, and 75% probability the bull market continues. Sentiment is the real trap — selling now or waiting for trend confirmation just means chasing the next local high.
Meanwhile, BTC's NVT golden cross dipped to -1.6 — typically signaling market undervaluation and short-term mean-reversion plays. But crypto trader Darkfost warns: leverage in this environment is playing with fire.
Arthur Hayes: “I think $80,000 holds” as liquidity expands
Arthur Hayes is doubling down: BTC's recent 35% drawdown to $80,500 is the cycle floor. His thesis? The Fed's quantitative tightening cycle is ending and US bank lending is rising. Liquidity expansion, not sentiment, will drive the next leg up.
We chop below $90K, maybe a stab into the low $80Ks, but $80K holds
Onchain data backs this up. CryptoQuant just recorded the largest net realized loss since FTX collapse — yet the market flipped positive almost immediately. That fast absorption of forced sellers means floating supply got flushed, setting up a solid defense at $80K–$85K if traditional markets stay stable.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
#Bitcoin bull market#Market Capitulation#Cryptotrading#Bitcoin Price Predictions#Technical analysis
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