Bitcoin bull market vibes emerge, but confirmation is missing: Glassnode

Bitcoin's rally to $76K just gave us a taste of those bull market vibes — but Glassnode's on-chain data says pump the brakes. This move might just be part of an early-stage recovery, still trapped in that volatile, shaky phase.

Here's the tea: BTC has entered a relatively 'open' zone between $72K and $82K, where there's less resistance. This range is defined by the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which basically shows where investors stacked their coins. Translation: if momentum holds, BTC could move more freely in this range short-term.

But the real signal? Whether the broader market is actually returning to profitability. Right now, the share of Bitcoin supply in profit has climbed back to around 60% — classic early recovery levels. Glassnode drops the mic: 'A sustained push above 75% would carry considerably more weight as a confirmation of early bull market conditions, whereas continued rejection near current levels would reinforce the bear market recovery narrative.'

Another red flag: as BTC climbed above $74K, short-term holders started cashing out hard — realized gains hit $18.4M per hour. This mirrors earlier failed rallies where investors sold into strength, killing the momentum. If BTC can absorb this profit-taking wave and hold above $70K, we might see a push into the $78K-$82K range.

Technically, the broader trend still screams caution. On daily and weekly charts, BTC is still trading in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows — bullish market structure? Not yet. For a real shift, BTC needs to break above its previous lower high near $97,855 and stay there.

This region aligns with the Fibonacci 'golden zone' between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels — a key decision point for trend reversals. A clean breakout above this range, followed by consolidation, would signal strong demand and boost chances of a long-term rally.

CryptoQuant's cycle indicator echoes this cautious vibe. The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle indicator is still in bearish territory at -0.72 (up from -1 earlier this month, but still far from a trend reversal). For full bull market confirmation, this indicator needs to move above 1.

Watch for an early signal: a move above the bull-bear 365-day moving average, currently at -0.23. This level acts as a long-term trend filter, smoothing out short-term volatility and showing whether market conditions are actually shifting bullish on higher time frames.