Estimating Bitcoin's support levels for the next cycle bottom

Hey crypto fam—Diaman Partners just dropped a bombshell analysis using Monte Carlo sims and the 200-week MA. They're predicting Bitcoin's next cycle low could hit between $60K and $80K by late 2026. Yeah, that's right, even with all the ETF hype and institutional money flowing in, a crypto winter might still be on the horizon.

Remember 2022? BTC crashed to $15K thanks to the FTX meltdown, breaking the pattern of always staying above previous highs. Now, with the current cycle likely peaking around October 2025, this isn't just FUD—it's risk management 101.

The 200-week MA has been a solid support level historically, except for that FTX mess. Diaman's model factors in decreasing returns and volatility over time, 'cause let's be real—Bitcoin's not gonna moon forever as it matures.

Their Monte Carlo sim ran 1,000 scenarios. Bottom line: only a 5% chance BTC dips below $41K by Dec 2026, with the MA around $60K. If things go south hard, expect a support level near $60K; if growth stays strong before the drop, it could bottom above $80K.

Reverse-engineering this: if BTC hits a peak of $260K in 2025, a -69% drawdown (plausible based on past cycles) would bring it down to around $80K. Not investment advice, just data-driven speculation for the degens and pros alike.

Key takeaway: Bitcoin cycles ain't dead yet. Stay sharp, manage your risks, and maybe don't YOLO everything at the top. Full props to Diaman Partners for the deep dive—this is the kind of analysis that separates the HODLers from the paper hands.