Circle's USDC overtook Tether's USDT in adjusted YTD volume: Mizuho

Mizuho dropped a bombshell report Friday: Circle's USDC just overtook Tether's USDT in adjusted transaction volume for the first time since 2019. This isn't just a blip — it's a seismic shift in the stablecoin wars.

The numbers don't lie: USDC racked up $2.2 trillion in adjusted YTD volume vs. USDT's $1.3 trillion. That's 64% market share for USDC. Mizuho analysts called this a "reversal in a long-term trend" that's held since 2019.

Here's the kicker: Mizuho raised Circle's stock price target from $100 to $120 on this data. But Circle's stock barely moved post-report — classic market underreaction.

The real tea? USDT still dominates market cap at $184B vs. USDC's $79B. But Mizuho says volume matters more: "The stablecoin 'winner' will be the one people use for everyday transactions, not just market capitalization." Translation: usage > hodling.

While USDC's winning on-chain, DC's still fighting over the rules. The CLARITY Act (that crypto market structure bill) is stuck in Senate limbo — debates over stablecoin yield, ethics, and tokenized equities have it gridlocked.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune just said the chamber will prioritize voting requirements over crypto market structure, with no movement expected before April. So much for regulatory clarity anytime soon.

Related context: Circle went public on NYSE in June 2025 and saw its stock jump 167% on day one. Meanwhile, the DOJ and Europol just took down the SocksEscort network tied to crypto fraud — reminder that regulation's still playing catch-up.