Circle's USDC overtook Tether's USDT in adjusted YTD volume: Mizuho

Japanese investment bank Mizuho just dropped a bombshell: Circle's USDC has officially flipped Tether's USDT in transaction volume for the first time since 2019. This isn't just noise — it's a seismic shift in the stablecoin wars.

In a research note released Friday, Mizuho analysts revealed they've raised their price target for Circle stock from $100 to $120 after crunching the numbers. The data shows USDC racked up about $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume year-to-date, while USDT trailed at $1.3 trillion. That's a 64% market share for USDC — a complete reversal of the 2019-2025 trend where USDT dominated.

Here's the kicker: while USDC is winning the volume game, Tether still holds the market cap crown at about $184 billion versus USDC's $79 billion. But Mizuho's analysts aren't sweating the cap — they say the real "winner" will be the stablecoin people actually use for everyday transactions, not just the one sitting in wallets.

Circle's stock (which went public on the NYSE in June 2025) barely budged after the report dropped. Meanwhile, in Washington DC, lawmakers are still fighting over stablecoin yield in the CLARITY Act, which has been stalled in the Senate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Thursday the chamber would prioritize voting requirements over market structure bills, which likely won't pass before April.

The battle lines are drawn in DC. The CLARITY Act (which passed the House) is stuck in Senate limbo amid debates over stablecoin yield, ethics, and tokenized equities. Senate Majority Leader John Thune basically said crypto market structure isn't happening before April — they're focused on voting requirements instead.