Crypto conditions signal unlikely chance of 'major capitulation': Lyn Alden
24.11.2025
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The crypto market hasn't reached 'euphoric levels,' which means less reason to expect a major landslide, according to Lyn Alden.
A significant crash for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market doesn't look likely at this stage, according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden.
We haven't hit euphoric levels in this cycle; therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation
Alden dropped this take during a recent episode of the What Bitcoin Did podcast, basically saying the market ain't frothy enough for a massive meltdown.
The cycle could go on for longer than people can expect, because it's not driven by the halving, it's driven by broader macro and interest in the asset itself
She straight-up shut down the idea that the four-year cycle is still intact, calling cap on that outdated theory.
This sentiment echoes other crypto execs like Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, who recently dismissed the four-year-cycle theory and said we're likely in 'for a good few years.'
Alden says market outcomes usually not as good or bad as people expect
But not everyone's buying Alden's no-capitulation thesis. Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, recently told Cointelegraph he expects a Bitcoin retracement of 65% to 70% in the next two years.
Alden countered that market outcomes rarely match the extremes investors imagine.
It's usually not as good as people expect and it's usually not as bad as people expect is often how these things play out
This comes as Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since hitting new ATHs of $125,100 on Oct. 5, dropping to as low as $80,700 on Thursday before recovering slightly to $85,710 at publication time, according to CoinMarketCap.
Market sentiment has also tanked, as many traders were expecting year-end strength and even new highs, with some like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes calling for a move toward $250,000.
Alden says, "No one is owed a bull market"
Bitcoin's recent price plunge has traders obsessing over when the next uptrend will begin, but Alden said investors need to stop treating bull cycles like they're guaranteed.
People kind of get in their mindset where they are owed a bull market. No one is owed a bull market
Alden expects Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000 level in 2026 and to either set new all-time highs that year or, if not, in 2027.
#Cryptomarket analysis#Bull market#Macroeconomic factors#Cryptocurrency market
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