Bitcoin bear market may end if bulls reclaim $74.5K: Here’s why

Bitcoin (BTC) just bounced 7.45% after crashing to $62,400 on Tuesday — but it's still trading below a massive psychological wall. Holders who bought 6 months to 2 years ago have an average cost basis of $74,500. That's the line in the sand. Reclaim it, and the bear market narrative starts crumbling.

Realized price tracks the average on-chain acquisition cost. For coins aged 18–24 months, that's $64,200 — a level BTC tested and held by Tuesday's close. Analyst Anıl flagged this as critical support holding... for now.

When price trades below cost basis, investors sit on unrealized losses — sell pressure builds. Flip above it, and stress evaporates. The cohort from 6 months to 2 years? Their realized price is $74,500. Their MVRV ratio is 0.88 (<1 = holding at a loss). A sustained move above $74,500 puts most of this group back in profit, potentially easing exit pressure.

On-chain data shows long-term holder balance is back near 14 million BTC — recovering from a multi-year low in Nov 2025. This signals coins are going dormant despite volatility. If the 6-month to 2-year cohort holds instead of selling near breakeven, supply between $74,500 and $100,000 could thin out fast.

Break $74,500, and the next magnet is liquidity near $100,000.

Realized cap (aggregate value based on last on-chain movement) is holding near cycle highs — but its expansion has slowed. The net position change is compressing toward 0%, meaning capital inflows are negligible.

Late bear markets show flat/contracting realized cap; early recoveries start with stabilization before acceleration. Watch for net position change jumping back to 2–4% — that's the signal fresh capital is flooding back in.