Bitcoin-to-gold ratio falls to new low, but analysts say BTC’s discounted ‘setups are rare’

Bitcoin’s relative performance against gold just hit its weakest since Nov 2023 — the BTC-to-gold ratio tanked to ~18.5 ounces per BTC. Gold’s pumping to ATHs ($4,888), while BTC’s struggling above $90K. But analysts are calling this a classic ‘asymmetric setup’ — the kind that usually triggers a massive capital rotation back into Bitcoin.

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards dropped the mic: gold’s 100-year bull market average is +150% gains. If history repeats, gold could rocket to $12K in 3–10 years. That’s more short-term pressure on BTC/gold, but the long game? Different story.

Crypto analyst Decode hit the charts with Elliott wave theory — says the BTC/gold pair might be entering the final stage of its downtrend. Translation: bearish momentum could be exhausting soon, even if sentiment’s still shaky.

Bitwise’s European head of research, André Dragosch, called this a macro contrarian signal. He said Bitcoin is trading at a “steep discount” to gold — conditions this extreme are “very rare.” Expect a capital flow shift by Q1 2026.

Dragosch broke it down: gold’s surge is tied to a structural shift in the global monetary system (Ray Dalio vibes). As countries ditch sovereign bonds for hard assets, gold wins first. Bitcoin hasn’t caught the same bid — yet — because it’s seen as higher risk. But once capital starts rotating, BTC’s next leg up could be explosive.