XRP price risks repeating 2022 crash as new buyers go underwater
03.02.2026
822
XRP mirrored a 50% crash scenario from 2022 as it underwent its sharpest weekly selloff since October 2025.
XRP price risks repeating 2022 crash as new buyers go underwater
XRP just pulled its sharpest weekly selloff since October 2025 — and it’s flashing the same signals that preceded a brutal 50% crash back in 2022. Brace yourselves.
- • XRP risks extended downside if it breaks below $1.48 as whale selling persists.
- • Holding $1.43–$1.48 keeps hopes alive for the bulls.
New XRP buyers are in the red
As of Monday, XRP was trading around $1.60 — down more than 20% in a week and sitting well below the cost basis of buyers from the last 12 months. Translation: a huge chunk of recent buyers are already underwater.
It’s now just above its aggregated realized price near $1.48 — the average cost basis of all XRP in circulation. A decisive break below $1.48 means the average holder goes underwater, mirroring the 2022 bear phase that ended in a 50% drawdown to about $0.30.
Adding fuel to the fire: XRP’s 90-day whale flow remains net negative. Large holders are distributing, not accumulating — data from CryptoQuant confirms it.
When new buyers are already underwater and whales keep dumping, overhead supply piles up — making any rebound attempt weak.
Stablecoin outflows add to XRP downside risks
Stablecoin flows into exchanges flipped sharply negative in late 2025 — 30-day net outflows hit roughly $9.6 billion.
Outflows eased in January, but net flows stayed negative at around $4 billion, per data gathered by Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant.
Fewer stablecoins on exchanges = less buying pressure. That makes it harder for XRP to climb above its realized price.
XRP price risks crashing by another 50%
Price charts show XRP has held above its 100-2W exponential moving average (100-2W EMA) at around $1.43 — close to the aggregated realized price of $1.48.
XRP could still slip into the $1.43–$1.48 support band in February. But its two-week relative strength index (RSI) near 38 has historically preceded reversals.
Either way, XRP may spend weeks finding its footing before attempting a stronger recovery by late Q1 or Q2 2026 — if the RSI holds around 38 like it has in the past.
But if XRP decisively breaks below its 100-2W EMA? That likely invalidates the recovery scenario. In that case, XRP risks sliding toward its 200-2W EMA near $1 as early as March — echoing the kind of breakdown that followed similar support losses in 2022.
A drop to $1 would put XRP about 36% below current levels.
#XRP#Relative Strength Index (RSI)#Bear Market#stablecoins#Technical analysis
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