BTC price analysis: Bitcoin could crash another 50%

Bitcoin sellers are getting LOUDER this week — and the charts are screaming bearish. Brace yourselves, this could get ugly.

October was the moment: Bitcoin’s monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) crossed into bearish territory for the FIRST time this bull run. Since 2014, this signal has flashed red five times. Trader Brett highlighted that in four of those cases, BTC dumped ~50% before finding a floor. Only once (2019) did it align with a bottom — and even then, price kept bleeding for two more months.

Since that October crossover, Bitcoin is already down ~35%. The indicator suggests room for another 25% dip by January 2026 — targeting around $62,200. That’s dangerously close to the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) support zone near $66,300, where previous bear markets found their footing.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt’s long-term charts paint a similar grim picture. His projections point to Bitcoin drifting toward the upper boundary of its rising support channel — sub-$70,000 territory. Trader Crypto Patel foresaw a similar target using Fibonacci retracement levels.

Brandt’s worst-case scenario? A drop into the mid-$40,000s if selling accelerates — a full 50% haircut from current levels. Analyst Tracer’s double-top fractal structure echoes this brutal possibility.

Onchain metrics aren’t offering any hope either. Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) extreme deviation bands show BTC is still trading WAY above its −0.5σ band — a level that’s acted like a gravity well during past corrections.

In the 2018, 2019, and 2022 bear markets, Bitcoin repeatedly retraced to this −0.5σ zone before finding sustainable bottoms (Glassnode data). A similar move now would imply a drop toward $76,250 — lining up perfectly with Brandt and Patel’s targets.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.