Bitcoin starts $100K 'capitulation' as BTC price metric sees big volatility

BTC traded around $110,000 on Saturday as traders stayed bearish after 'Uptober' failed to deliver. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed the BTC price was recovering losses from Friday's Wall Street trading session, which began with sell pressure - a frequent phenomenon throughout the week involving both US exchanges and spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Onchain analytics platform Glassnode said ETF outflows highlight 'rising sell pressure from TradFi investors and renewed weakness in institutional demand.' Data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors put Friday's tally at $191 million, which followed $488 million in outflows for Thursday.

Glassnode noted that markets had shrugged off a macro tailwind in the form of an interest-rate cut from the US Federal Reserve: 'The Fed delivered the expected rate cut, but the hawkish tone for December has cooled optimism. The initial rally faded as traders moved back into cautious mode, a shift clearly reflected in BTC's options market.'

Traders likewise remained cautious, with crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows calling the current setup on Bitcoin 'time-based capitulation': 'BTC time-based capitulation is happening now. But for this, Bitcoin needs to consolidate above $100,000. A weekly close below this level will confirm the downtrend.'

Trader Daan Crypto Trades said that a true move could only come once BTC price decisively crossed the upper or lower boundary of its local range, with the two key levels of interest being $107,000 and $116,000.

The October monthly candle delivered a disappointing 3.7% loss for BTC/USD - the worst result since 2018. November is traditionally Bitcoin's best-performing month, with data from CoinGlass confirming an average upside of 42.5% since 2013.

Commentator Matthew Hyland added that the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator continued to imply record volatility was on the way: 'Monthly Bollinger Bands have reached the most extreme levels in Bitcoin's entire history.'

Bollinger Band narrowing has long been on the radar for market participants. Last month, the indicator's creator John Bollinger said that it would soon be 'time to pay attention' to volatility on both Bitcoin and major altcoins.