Bitcoin getting to $340,000 this cycle is a "very big ask," but over the past five years, BTC has already won the macro asset returns game, research shows.
Bitcoin to $340,000 this cycle: A “very big ask”
Bitcoin is already up 700% versus its $15,600 bear market low in 2022, but those gains remain comparatively tame by historical standards. In percentage terms, BTC price action has a long way to go until it matches even its previous bull market.
Between 2019 and 2021, BTC/USD delivered maximum gains of 2,089%. To do the same, macro trader and investor Jason Pizzino says, is a “very big ask” — price would need to hit a giant $340,000.
“If Bitcoin hits $340,000 this cycle, it would be the first time in its 16-year history that it has a greater return than the previous cycle. It is a very big ask, but many are asking if it’s possible.”
“That is a $6.7 trillion market cap, less than a third of gold's market cap at roughly $23T, and it’d put BTC in second place as the most valuable asset in the world, behind gold.”
Bitcoin “remains in a league of its own”
In further findings, Pizzino saw an increasing positive correlation between Bitcoin and another macro asset class. The 18-year real estate cycle, he argued, is starting to fit Bitcoin’s existing lifespan.
“Bitcoin and the 18-Year Cycle are going hand-in-hand for their first complete cycle together,” he summarized, calling the correlation a “superb love story.”
In gold terms, BTC put in current all-time highs in late 2024. A subsequent bull run on gold sent BTC/XAU down 40% before a rebound, with 1 BTC now worth around 36 ounces.
“Over the past 5 years, Bitcoin has easily outperformed all major asset classes with a staggering 58.2% CAGR,” it confirmed Monday, referring to the combined annual growth rate.
“The closest competitor, QQQ, delivered 16.28%, followed by SPY at 13.68% and gold (GLD) at 10.49%. Bitcoin remains in a league of its own.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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