Bitcoin’s real ‘Uptober’ moment might start in February: Here’s why
28.01.2026
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Bitcoin’s (BTC) monthly gains have been limited to just 2.2%, but February could mark a bullish shift. Since 2016, the week ending Feb. 21 has recorded the highest median return at 8.4%, with Bitcoin closing higher 60% of the time.
Bitcoin’s real ‘Uptober’ moment might start in February: Here’s why
Bitcoin’s monthly gains have been a snooze at just 2.2%, but February is about to wake the beast. Since 2016, the week ending Feb. 21 has been the GOAT, delivering a median return of 8.4% with BTC closing green 60% of the time. February is the real ‘Uptober’ — and the data doesn’t lie.
- • February has delivered a median 7% weekly BTC return historically, outperforming October’s seasonal strength.
- • Early-February performance has reliably flagged bearish periods, with 2018, 2022 and 2025 all setting the tone within the first three weeks.
February’s seasonal edge and its impact on BTC
Network economist Timothy Peterson dropped the truth bomb: February is historically Bitcoin’s most consistent bullish month, often beating the legendary ‘Uptober’ effect. The driver? Macro vibes, not crypto hype. Mid-February is when corporate earnings and forward guidance drop — usually optimistic — pushing investors into risk-on mode, with some cash flowing straight into BTC.
“The two-week period for Feb 7-21 features a median weekly return of => 7% per week!!”
Peterson also noted that the first three weeks of February have been a crystal ball during correction years. BTC gained 4% in early 2018, fell 3% in 2022, and dropped 5% in 2025 — all years that ended in the red. With volatility high but cooling, Peterson argues BTC could be primed for a rebound if macro stress indicators like the VIX chill out.
Bitcoin’s ceiling in 2026 remains above $200,000
Bitcoin researcher Sminston With is still mega-bullish on BTC’s long-cycle potential. Using the Bitcoin Decay Channel, he projects BTC’s 2026 top price between $210,000 and $300,000. The model doesn’t predict timing, but its price bands have been historically on point.
That long-term view gets backup from momentum data. Sina, author of the Bitcoin Intelligence Report, says BTC’s momentum has flipped positive despite the recent brutal correction. According to Sina, consolidation since early January preserved the broader flow structure. The sell-off matched the Nasdaq’s dip after renewed US tariff tensions — a news-driven move, not a BTC breakdown.
XWIN Research backs this up, noting BTC is in consolidation, not a clear risk-off trend. While high long-term bond yields are capping valuation expansion, the Realized Cap keeps climbing — a sign that spot-based capital is still flooding the network.
#Cryptomarket analysis#Bull market#Bitcoin bull market#Bitcoin price increase#Technical analysis
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